COIOps Risk Desk · Brief 01 · September 2026
The Thursday Lapse: 2026’s Two-Speed Casualty Market Still Leaves Expired Certs on the Site
Property pricing eased. Excess liability did not. The certificate that expires on Thursday is still a Friday mobilization, a Monday owner call, and a general contractor holding the claim.
- 5–30%
- Typical 2026 excess-liability renewal increases
- ~41%
- Liability claims tied to subcontractor risk
- 60/30/14/7
- Days-out chase before a lapse becomes a delay
Title page · 11 minute read · Document score ≠ coverage opinion
Gallagher’s August 2026 construction update describes a split market: property and builders-risk placements got more competitive, while excess liability renewals still commonly land between roughly 5% and 30% as nuclear verdicts and litigation funding keep severity high.
A 2026 market note citing Gallagher Bassett puts subcontractor-related risk at about 41% of construction liability claims. Underwriters are answering by tightening additional-insured and certificate conditions — not by relaxing the file a GC has to produce after a loss.
The field failure mode has not changed. A roofing or HVAC certificate expires on a Thursday. Nobody owns the date. Crews work Friday. The owner’s rep asks for the file on Monday. The job stops, the pay app waits, and the GC is the name on the tender.
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